trendovi.1dejanr,
Bell-Northern će na tržište uskoro izbaciti komunikator koji nalikuje
na onaj koji koriste u "Zvezdanim stazama".
Celularni telefon koji nosite u džepu, otvorite ga, kažete ime onoga
s kim želite da pričate i... pričate :)
NOVOSTI/microb 4.856.
trendovi.2mnikolic,
Jučerašnja Politika donosi jako zanimljive rezultate istraživanja tržišta
personalnih računara za prvu polovinu 1994. godine.
Udeo na tržištu personalnih računara:
9.8% Compaq
8.6% Apple
8.5% IBM
5.0% Packard-Bell
4.7% NEC
3.0% AST
2.9% Dell
2.8% Hewlett-Packard
2.5% ACER
2.4% Gateway 2000
49.8% Ostali
Udeo na tržištu mikropocesora:
------------------------------
74% Intel
8% Motorola
6% AMD
2% Texas Instruments
10% Ostali
Udeo na tržištu softvera:
-------------------------
38.3% Microsoft
12.0% Lotus
7.2% Novell
5.3% Adobe-Aldus
2.7% Symantec
34.6% Ostali
trendovi.4nenad,
InfoWorld je ugledni američki kompjuterski časopis koji se
pretežno bavi temama koje kod nas najčešće nisu uopšte
zastupljene - trendovima u kompletnoj računarskoj industriji,
primeni u velikim korporacijama, kompjuterskoj tehnologiji
uopšte, integraciji sa velikim sistemima i sl. Nema onih
praktično-korisnih end-user tekstova, članci su namenjeni
gotovo isključivo IS profesionalcima.
Ipak, i njima se "omakne" neki ovakav tekst. U pitanju je
duhovito predviđanje za narednih nekoliko godina, do 2004.,
kada je smak sveta. Pročitajte, odlično je. :)
Autor je Nicholas Petreley. Tekst je Copyright (C) 1997 by
InfoWorld Publishing Company, tako da ne sme da ide dalje.
It ain't over 'til it's over, but until then,
here's what this guy says the future holds
As is customary this time of year, I'll go out on a limb and
make a number of predictions for the coming years. This time
I'll take you all the way out to the year 2004, but no further
because that's when the world ends.
----
1997
Apple puts a Pentium Pro in its Newton eMate computer, a unit
introduced in 1996 that looked more like a notebook than a
personal digital assistant (PDA).
The U.S. Department of Justice investigation of Microsoft's
formerly alleged anti-competitive behavior comes to an end.
Microsoft is found guilty. As punishment, Microsoft is
restricted from pressuring Tiekwando Inc., the one remaining
computer manufacturer that doesn't pre-load Windows 95. In spite
of this, Tiekwando cuts an exclusive pre-load deal with
Microsoft. Unfortunately, the company goes out of business when
one of its machines overheats and the garage burns down.
Novell ships NetWare 5.0. Digital, still confused about its
marketing slogan, shortens it from "Whatever it takes" to
"Whatever."
Larry Ellison of Oracle spends the year evangelizing the server
appliance, dubbed the Network Server. Just plug it in, and it
lets you do whatever you want with your Network Computers. Java
becomes the official language of the Network Server model.
----
1998
A college student in Greeley, Colo., notices Novell shipped
NetWare 5.0 in 1997.
Discovering it had overbudgeted in 1997 for its legal costs,
Microsoft buys Borland with the surplus.
Oracle's Network Servers begin to ship. In response, Microsoft
announces the "zero-dollar initiative" for Windows NT Server.
For just $8,800 per month, you get to rent a sealed box with a
reduced administration version of Windows NT Server included for
free. Microsoft calls this "reduced administration" because the
new license agreement limits user connections to 10 per box.
Java becomes the official language of the 1998 U.S. Olympic
team.
----
1999
The Nasdaq market breaks records as technology stocks reflect a
sudden growth in software companies providing year-2000 fixes to
legacy applications.
Oracle's Ellison begins to evangelize the IS manager appliance,
dubbed the Network Dictator. Just plug it in, and it starts
telling you what you can't do with your Network Computers.
The Apple Newton eMate PDA gets a 13-inch color display and
bigger built-in keyboard.
An elderly man in Clearwater, Fla., actually cares that Novell
shipped NetWare 5.0 in 1997.
----
2000
Home Internet appliances take the market by storm. Network
Computer sales exceed the sales of new PCs. Network Servers are
catching up to Windows NT Server sales. Seven IBM employees buy
Network Dictators.
Microsoft's Brad Silverberg sends a good news/bad news memo to
Bill Gates. The bad news: Sun, Oracle, and Netscape are taking a
bigger bite of Microsoft's profits and market share. The good
news: With the head start Microsoft is getting on the
ActiveFixer year-10000 project, Microsoft may finally ship a
product on time.
Apple's eMate PDA gets a detachable keyboard and mouse.
Java becomes the official language of Canada, requiring Javasoft
to add an "eh?" method to all root Java classes.
----
2001
Besides finding an unusual alien monolith (a space oddity) on
the moon, nothing significant happens this year.
----
2002
Apple's eMate is broken up into separate components, including a
keyboard, mouse, monitor, and main Intel-based CPU unit. You can
optionally hook it up to a network. Pundits hail this innovative
alternative to Network Computers as the Next Big Thing.
Microsoft's Gates begins to evangelize the OS appliance, dubbed
the Benevolent Dictator. Just plug it in, and it starts telling
Ellison what he can do with his Network Computers.
----
2003
IBM creates the most ambitious computer project ever tackled.
This database and communications system, dubbed Olympia, handles
all communications and banking worldwide. In order for the
system to eliminate the need for currency, everyone must have an
IBM computer chip implanted in his or her right hand or
forehead. The digital signature in the embedded chip begins with
the numbers 666, fulfilling the 2,000-year-old biblical
prophecy. Widespread publicity regarding this telltale feature
of the chip will create enough controversy to postpone the
apocalypse. Unfortunately, although the worldwide system works
perfectly in every other respect, it fails to transfer this
critical bit of information to the press.
----
2004
It is obvious to all that the end of the world is imminent this
year. Silverberg sends a good news/bad news memo to Gates. The
bad news: the ActiveFixer project is three years behind
schedule. The good news: It looks as if Microsoft won't have to
deliver it on time.
IBM announces that it will discontinue support for OS/2.
trendovi.5nenad,
Evo kako su neke velike kompjuterske firme poslovale
u poslednja tri meseca prošle godine.
Compaq: $5.4 billion in sales, $462 million in profits
The slow Christmas selling season didn't hamper Compaq. Analysts
attribute the company's record sales in the quarter to a solid
product mix and strong financial and asset management.
Microsoft: $2.7 billion in sales, $741 million in profits
In spite of the software giant's well-known tendency to
understate its own earnings potential, Chief Financial Officer
Mike Brown said market realities are catching up with the
company -- and that double-digit growth isn't likely to last
significantly beyond the next two quarters.
IBM: $23.1 billion in sales; $2 billion in profits
IBM had generally strong performance across the board --
highlighted by its PC and services business -- but Wall Street
was disappointed with the company's lower profit margins.
Intel: $6.4 billion in sales, $1.9 billion in profits
Boasting a 117 percent increase in earnings, Intel set new
records for unit shipments of microprocessors and chip sets, but
warns of a flat Q1.
Cyrix's $4.5 million loss was lower than anticipated,
causing its shares to rise.
Worldwide semiconductor sales off $10B in '96
Netscape: $115 million in sales, $8.8 million in profits
Netscape reported financials that were right in line with
analysts' expectations -- a bit of a change, since the company
has regularly stunned investors with its growth. CEO Jim
Barksdale said corporate sales of E-mail and groupware products
will carry the company forward this year. Netscape shares
plunged earlier this month after an analyst downgraded his
earnings estimate for the company. Other analysts dismiss the
volatility in light of the company's overall business plan and
strategy.
Apple: $2.1 billion in sales, $120 million net loss
Despite a 32 percent drop in sales, CEO Gil Amelio says
new products and a new corporate culture will be among
the elements helping to drive a turnaround.
Digital: $3.358 billion in sales, $31.9 million in profits
After a poor first quarter, Digital bounced back in Q2.
Company executives foresee strong demand for Alpha
systems and processors helping to fuel growth in 1997.
Other companies reporting earnings:
In shadow of buyout, AST announces $68M Q4 loss
Egghead shutters 77 stores; CEO quits
CheckPoint closes year on a high note
CompUSA meets expectations in Q2
BroadVision loses $3.6 million in Q4
Gateway beats expectations in Q4
Sybase reports earnings drop; CEO Kertzman says company is on
comeback trail
TI reports Q4 loss, sells mobile business to Acer
Vanstar falls on lowered Q3 expectations
AT&T profits, excluding restructuring costs, up 12 percent in Q4
Lucent earns $859M in Q1
NCR earns $7M in quarter
Sun sees 42 percent jump in Q2 earnings
CA sales top $1B in third quarter
USR's sales increase 77 percent
Motorola profits drops 45% in Q4
McAfee up on positive Q4
Tandem sees positive Q1
Ascend shares rise on strong Q4
Bay drops $173M in Q2
trendovi.6nenad,
Evo kako ljudi iz Microsoft-ovog odeljenja za istraživanje i
razvoj (da, postoji i to ;) vide komputere za 5 ili 10 godina,
kompjutere koji će moći da slušaju, pričaju, vide...
Microsoft research group peers into the future
Microsoft Corp.'s advanced technology and research group can give
plenty of gee-whiz demonstrations-from interactive parrots to
software that can track a user's gaze-but behind every demo there
is a sense of practicality.
"There is a big gap from research to reality," said Microsoft
speech researcher X.D. Huang at a technology briefing at company
headquarters here. "People expect humanlike performance, and
we're not near that yet."
Huang's speech technology is one of the building blocks of a
fully interactive desktop that still exists only in science
fiction and R&D blueprints-a desktop that can see and hear a user
and provide intelligent feedback.
But Microsoft isn't about to make the same mistakes ascribed to
Xerox Corp.'s legendary PARC in the 1970s and 1980s-dreaming up
ideas such as the GUI but turning out few working products.
According to Microsoft Vice President Rick Rashid, one of the
missions of the 110-person research group is to be a resource for
the commercial product groups.
For example, the Office Assistant in Office 97 and the Microsoft
Support troubleshooters use engines developed by a research team
that is looking into how software can learn user preferences.
Similarly, research by the graphics team led to Talisman, a
hardware design for three-dimensional modeling.
That's not to say that the research projects have to fall into
clear release schedules, though. They are, after all, just
research. If the research has a final goal, it's far in the
future.
The mission of Huang's speech technology group, for example, is
to make PCs speak naturally and comprehend human speech.
The Holy Grail for his group is a continuous-dictation system
that doesn't require pauses between each word.
The speech-recognition engines available today require users to
isolate each word. Their small vocabularies and comparatively
high error rates make them lose their luster once they're off the
demonstration floor and into users' hands.
IBM, for example, included its VoiceType engine in last year's
Warp 4 client, but few corporate IS departments made regular use
of it. Microsoft itself is internally testing a dictation
application based on its Whisper engine, but it is unclear when,
or even if, that application will be commercially available.
Continuous-speech recognition, Huang said, may be 10 years in
development and will require at least 64MB of RAM and a chip with
the power of Intel Corp.'s Merced, due in 1999.
Computers that listen and talk, however, will probably appear
before computers that can see.
Senior Researcher Steven Shafer, who left the academic world to
join Microsoft last year, does not expect PC-based cameras to be
ubiquitous for at least five years. By then, he said, the
research into a vision-based user interface will have only begun
to move into the realm of the practical.
A near-future goal of a vision-based user interface is to track
arm gestures and heads. The eventual goal for the group is to
enable a computer to lip-read, recognize faces and even recognize
facial expressions.
Today, PC-based cameras can trigger applications when a user
steps in front of the lens. And, with some training and
initializing, a PC also can track a user's gaze.
But the gaze-tracking is limited to large sections of the screen,
as demonstrated through a slow, full-screen ticktacktoe. By way
of comparison, vision-based user interfaces are at the same state
as the PC game market was when Pong was introduced in the 1980s.
In keeping with the goal of spinning off pieces of technology,
however, the vision technology group also is working with product
groups such as SoftImage and PictureIt, as well as MSNBC and the
Consumer Group, to leverage research work on the creation of 3-D
or panoramic images.
trendovi.7johnnya,
>> Evo kako ljudi iz Microsoft-ovog odeljenja za istraživanje i
>> razvoj (da, postoji i to ;) vide komputere za 5 ili 10 godina,
>> kompjutere koji će moći da slušaju, pričaju, vide...
... i vrište kada se na njih budu instalirali Microsoft programi :))
trendovi.8madamov,
> The Holy Grail for his group is a continuous-dictation system
> that doesn't require pauses between each word.
>
> The speech-recognition engines available today require users to
> isolate each word. Their small vocabularies and comparatively
> high error rates make them lose their luster once they're off the
> demonstration floor and into users' hands.
Jadna nam budućnost ako Microsoft treba da se bavi razvojem ovakvih
tehnologija - opet izmišljaju toplu vodu. Tvrdnja u drugom pasusu je netačna -
Appleov PlainTalk (koji se, BTW, dobija džabe uz svaki sistem) ne zahteva da
mu se svaka reč izdvoji, sasvim se normalno može reći "Computer, open control
panels folder" bez izdvajanja i stvar radi. Problem je u naglasku, još nije
razvijen pouzdan metod da Mac prepozna Tarzan English, mada se i mašina i
korisnik navikavaju jedan na drugog. B) Da ne govorim o tome da PlainTalk
postoji još od prvih AV Macova, dakle tamo od kraja 1993. godine. Evo nečega
na tu temu sa jedne Mac mailing liste:
Date: Fri, 21 Feb 97 17:54:26 -0000
From: EvangeList <evangelist@apple.com>
To: "Macway" <macway@solutions.apple.com>
Subject: Tidbit - Mac vs. Windows Speech Recognition
Message-ID: <199702220156.RAA23512@scv3.apple.com>
This tidbit is from:
Marc <MAKITAMAC@aol.com>
Happen to catch "Nextstep" on Discovery channel Friday night? Touting
innovative technology, they demonstrated Microsoft's speech recognition
software. For only $299 (includes free microphone ($5 value?!)) You too
can own this gem! How many years has Plaintalk been around?! The show
should be renamed "Backstep". Feel free to check out feedback page:
<http://www.nextstep.com/feedback/feedback.html>
_______________________
Digital Guy Sez:
Funny you should mention speech recognition. I just spent an hour
tricking up my Mac with PlainTalk 1.5 to accomplish a long time goal of
mine -- full speech control of the majority of my administrative chores.
I downloaded PlainTalk 1.5 from the Apple Speech Web Site:
<http://speech.apple.com/ptk/>
I installed it and took it on a spin. On a 6100/60 performance was
pretty snappy, so much so I went on a search for some goodies to script
some speakable items. A Scripting Addition called AutoType allows you to
create scripts that type characters (including Command, Option, or
Control keys) as if they were typed from your keyboard:
<http://www.wrldpwr.com:80/osaxen/autotype_osax.html>
I could create absurdly simple scripts that could be used across a whole
set of applications by typing a command key sequence, instead scripting
directly to each application. Here's an example script for my "Undo"
speakable item:
AutoType "z" holding "Command"
That's it! Save the script as an "Application", and make sure "Never
show startup screen" is checked. With Speech Recognition on I say "Undo",
and the last action is undone within the current application. If the
"Undo" menu item is not active, nothing happens. Using things like
TypeIt4Me and OneClick I can create very complex macros and scripts
specific to each application that can be triggered by a common command
key combination. This reduces the number of speakable items, which
improves performance. Application switching is done by dropping an alias
into the speakable items folder (or selecting an item and saying "Make
this item speakable", and it's done for you :).
I've been using speech recognition to do real work all day now, and it's
not only useful, it's REALLY cool. I can't wait to try this on my
8500/180 at home!
$300 for speech recognition? For no additional cost (the Microphone's
included with every Mac too :) I can say "Sign" and the following happens:
Kick butt!
John J. Halbig
(a.k.a the Digital Guy)
e-mail: evangelist@apple.com
________________
Do you believe in Macintosh? Please check out:
<http://www.evangelist.macaddict.com/>
Join the EvangeList mailing list by sending an email to:
<evangelist@macway.com>.
Please send messages that you'd like us to consider for posting to:
<evangelist@apple.com>
trendovi.9nenad,
> Jadna nam budućnost ako Microsoft treba da se bavi razvojem ovakvih
> tehnologija - opet izmišljaju toplu vodu. Tvrdnja u drugom pasusu je
> netačna - Appleov PlainTalk (koji se, BTW, dobija džabe uz svaki sistem)
> ne zahteva da mu se svaka reč izdvoji, sasvim se normalno može reći
> "Computer, open control panels folder" bez izdvajanja i stvar radi.
Vidiš što ti je vešto plasirana i formulisana informacija. Ako si
primetio u tekstu se pominje IBM-ov VoiceType i Warp-ova
mogućnost za prepoznavanje govora i kaže se kako zahteva pauze
između reči. To je tačno, ali kad se radi o _diktiranju_ običnog
engleskog govornog teksta, dakle nečega iz fonda od 20.000 reči
koliko je podržano u osnovnom paketu, ili čak 40.000 koliko
maksimalno podržava. Za izdavanje komandi naravno nije potrebno
odvajati reči već se mogu zadavati na isti način kao što si ti
gore opisao, praviti makroi, definisati sopstvene komande (dok ne
izlaze iz gorepomenutog fonda reči) i sl.
Dok nisam ponovo obratio pažnju na tekst uopšte nisam ukapirao da
su, praktično, rekli neistinu, jer su, po običaju, poredili
neuporedivo. :)
trendovi.10nenad,
Evo šta Dataquest predviđa za narednih nekoliko godina. Pozitivna
očekivanja za Apple, ne tako dobra za Network Computer, Netscape
ostaje glavni snabdevač Web čitača, Intel gubi pola tržišta
procesora tokom sledeće godine...
Dataquest gives a peek into its crystal ball
Market researcher and technology analyst Dataquest issued a set
of predictions and findings here Tuesday that bode well for
Apple Computer but cast doubts about network computers.
At Dataquest Predicts: 1997 and Beyond, a conference for
large-scale deployers of computers and networks, the firm
offered a few surprises amid dozens of predictions for the
computer industry through the end of the decade.
Casting off a rising tide of criticism of Apple, W. Ladd Bodem,
worldwide director of Dataquest's IT services group, said the
Cupertino, Calif., company should sell a lot of computers in
1997 and into 1998.
"We looked at the numbers," Bodem said and found that Apple has
reversed its price-performance equation to offer a lot of
computing power for the buck. The company recently cut prices
and offered new products with faster processors.
Industry star Intel, however, will get a run for its money by
Pentium chip cloners and may hold on to only about 50 percent
of the market for Pentium-class sales in 1998. Consequently,
chipmaker AMD will "have a hot 1998," predicts Dataquest.
The recent advent of the $1,000 PC will work against any mass
migration to the thin-client, network computer, said Bodem, at
least through this year. Dataquest believes the cost of a
full-fledged PC will continue to drop and that users will want
the local power and storage of a PC. Although lacking a
compelling price point against PCs, NCs will nonetheless take
the place of terminals, but Dataquest doesn't believe that will
change the overall PC landscape.
In fact, Dataquest predicts continuing heady growth -- a rate
of 17.5 percent from 1996 to 1997 -- for the worldwide PC
industry, with especially high growth rates in Asia. In the
U.S. home consumer market, growth will slow and peak at a
penetration level of 36 percent of households and then retreat
slightly over the next few years, said Dataquest.
Gigabit Ethernet products will arrive to quench the thirst for
bandwidth on local area networks this year, Dataquest predicts.
And the old "80/20" rule of network traffic, wherein 80 percent
of network traffic is local and 20 percent backbone, will be
inverted in 1997, the result of centrally deployed intranet
servers.
Other predictions made here Tuesday by Dataquest include the
following:
- Netscape's browsers will remain the Web client of choice in
intranets due to the multiplatform versions of the
Navigator product line.
- Expect the rapid development of new software delivery
channels such as distributed objects and "push"
technologies.
- More than half of all software support transactions will be
conducted online by 1998.
- The concept of a "computing utility" will emerge -- a new
twist on the old time-share computing model -- in which
businesses and users will buy computing services without
owning any hardware. Such services will grow to 30 percent
of the IT market by 2000.
- Software application suites will become increasingly
customized to satisfy more vertical markets.
- Expect more than 140 million PCs on the Internet by 2000.
- More than half of all Web servers will be on intranets by
2000.
- Online commerce, with the lion's share in
business-to-business transactions, will become a gold rush
in 1998 and blossom to $12 billion in total transactions by
2000
trendovi.11nenad,
CORBA wares to make a splash at Object World
The increasing proliferation of products based on the Object
Management Group's (OMG's) CORBA technology will be
demonstrated the week of March 3 at the Object World exposition
in Boston.
Many CORBA developers will unveil products that implement the
latest OMG specifications, including security and transactions,
while crucial additions to the architecture -- such as
messaging and standards for analysis and design -- continue to
be honed.
Despite its recent momentum, the CORBA market faces the
imminent challenge of Microsoft's Distributed Component Object
Model (DCOM) technologies, which spearhead the Redmond, Wash.,
software giant's enterprise software push.
"The lack of [Transaction Server] DCOM and Falcon
[message-oriented middleware] from Microsoft gives CORBA
vendors an important window of opportunity over the next 18 to
24 months. But Microsoft will get there with the DCOM
infrastructure, transactions, and messaging," said Melinda
Ballou, senior analyst with the Meta Group, in Stamford, Conn.
In addition to hammering out the integration of messaging
support within the CORBA architecture and bridging DCOM and
CORBA, the OMG is working on a Portable Object Adapter for the
portability of object request brokers (ORBs).
Among those vendors looking to push objects toward the
mainstream is Platinum Technology, which will unveil
entry-level and departmental versions of its Paradigm Plus
analysis and design package.
The company's Paradigm Plus Learning Edition and Professional
Edition are single-user versions of the enterprise-level tool
that sport limited versions of its modeling and round-trip
engineering capabilities. The Learning Edition will be
distributed for free; the Professional Edition will cost $1,495
for a single-user license.
ICL Inc. will update its DAIS ORB with security services that
conform to the OMG's security specifications, including user
authentication, access control, security associations, message
protection, auditing, and administration.
Expersoft will unveil an upgrade of its CORBAplus C++ ORB that
boasts a 40 percent performance boost and support of CORBA
events and relationships services.
Irish middleware developer Iona Technologies, which last week
issued an initial public offering, will debut an implementation
of the CORBA Trader technology that applies fuzzy-logic search
capabilities to object browsing.
Object World East will take place at the Hynes Convention
Center in Boston from March 2 to March 6.
trendovi.12orlic,
> The Holy Grail for his group is a continuous-dictation system
> that doesn't require pauses between each word.
>
> The speech-recognition engines available today require users to
> isolate each word. Their small vocabularies and comparatively
> high error rates make them lose their luster once they're off the
> demonstration floor and into users' hands.
Ma> Jadna nam buducnost ako Microsoft treba da se bavi razvojem ovakvih
Ma> tehnologija - opet izmisljaju toplu vodu. Tvrdnja u drugom pasusu je
Ma> netacna - Appleov PlainTalk (koji se, BTW, dobija dzabe uz svaki
Apsolutno je tacna. Nisi dobro preveo. Ne radi se o upravljanju glasom (to
radi sasma ok i 486 sa 8MB) vec o DIKTIRANJU glasom. Ne bih rekao da taj
program omogucava da sve ovo sto smo mi otkucali izgovorimo...
trendovi.13madamov,
> > The Holy Grail for his group is a continuous-dictation system
> > that doesn't require pauses between each word.
> >
> > The speech-recognition engines available today require users to
> > isolate each word. Their small vocabularies and comparatively
> > high error rates make them lose their luster once they're off the
> > demonstration floor and into users' hands.
>
> Ma> Jadna nam buducnost ako Microsoft treba da se bavi razvojem ovakvih
> Ma> tehnologija - opet izmisljaju toplu vodu. Tvrdnja u drugom pasusu je
> Ma> netacna - Appleov PlainTalk (koji se, BTW, dobija dzabe uz svaki
>
> Apsolutno je tacna. Nisi dobro preveo. Ne radi se o upravljanju glasom (to
> radi sasma ok i 486 sa 8MB) vec o DIKTIRANJU glasom. Ne bih rekao da taj
> program omogucava da sve ovo sto smo mi otkucali izgovorimo...
Izvinjavam se što citiram celu poruku, ali moram: kada neko kaže "The
speech-recognition engines available today require users to isolate each
word." onda to znači to što se kaže, a ceo tekst govori o prepoznavanju
govora, ne samo o sistemu za diktiranje. Dakle, tvrdnja je apsolutno netačna.
Kada već pominješ mašinu, to radi dobro i Mac sa 68030 procesorom na 16 MHz.
Takođe, PlainTalk nije program, već "speech-recognition engine" koji se može
doinstalirati na Mac OS 7.5.3 i standardno se isporučuje uz Mac OS. I odgovor
je da, da smo ovo kucali na engleskom izgovorio bi bez greške, čak možeš da
biraš kojim glasom, štaviše možeš da kreiraš glasove.
trendovi.14orlic,
> Ma> Jadna nam buducnost ako Microsoft treba da se bavi razvojem ovakvih
> Ma> tehnologija - opet izmisljaju toplu vodu. Tvrdnja u drugom pasusu je
> Ma> netacna - Appleov PlainTalk (koji se, BTW, dobija dzabe uz svaki
>
> Apsolutno je tacna. Nisi dobro preveo. Ne radi se o upravljanju glasom (to
> radi sasma ok i 486 sa 8MB) vec o DIKTIRANJU glasom. Ne bih rekao da taj
> program omogucava da sve ovo sto smo mi otkucali izgovorimo...
Ma> Izvinjavam se sto citiram celu poruku, ali moram: kada neko kaze "The
Ma> speech-recognition engines available today require users to isolate
Ma> each word." onda to znaci to sto se kaze, a ceo tekst govori o
Ma> prepoznavanju govora, ne samo o sistemu za diktiranje. Dakle, tvrdnja
Ma> je apsolutno netacna. Kada vec pominjes masinu, to radi dobro i Mac sa
Ma> 68030 procesorom na 16 MHz. Takode, PlainTalk nije program, vec
Ma> "speech-recognition engine" koji se moze doinstalirati na Mac OS 7.5.3
Ma> i standardno se isporucuje uz Mac OS. I odgovor je da, da smo ovo
Ma> kucali na engleskom izgovorio bi bez greske, cak mozes da biras kojim
Ma> glasom, stavise mozes da kreiras glasove.
Mi se nesto stvarno ne razumemo :))
Diktiranje glasom znaci da ja pricam "kompjuteru ukucaj ovaj tekst"
i da mi se u ekranu npr. worda pojavi tekst "kompjuteru ukucaj ovaj tekst".
Prepoznavanje glasa tj. upravljanj glasom znaci da ti kazes 'startuj corel
draw' i da se corel startuje. Prepoznavanje prirodnog govora tj. bez pauze
izmedju reci znaci da ne moras da kazes "startuj__corel__draw" tj. sa
pauzama u govoru izmedju reci.
Ako to stvarno radi ovo prvo navedeno molio bih ako je moguce jedna
prezentacija ;)
trendovi.15madamov,
> Prepoznavanje glasa tj. upravljanj glasom znaci da ti kazes 'startuj corel
> draw' i da se corel startuje. Prepoznavanje prirodnog govora tj. bez pauze
> izmedju reci znaci da ne moras da kazes "startuj__corel__draw" tj. sa
> pauzama u govoru izmedju reci.
>
> Ako to stvarno radi ovo prvo navedeno molio bih ako je moguce jedna
> prezentacija ;)
Upravo tako, govoriš mu bez pauze, normalnim glasom, a možeš da uključiš da li
da računar reaguje tek posle ključne reči (recimo, daš kompjuteru ime "Roger")
ili da proba na sve da reaguje (bolje je da uključiš, jer ćeš zateći računar
sa čudnim rasporedom prozora i otvorenih aplikacija, ako uopšte bude uključen,
posle jednog telefonskog razgovora u blizini B) Jedina mana je, kao što rekoh,
naglasak jer se lše prepoznaje engleski koji nije akcentovan američki.
trendovi.16nenad,
IBM and Sun embrace Java Beans, give OpenDoc the cold shoulder
IBM and Sun Microsystems have decided to standardize on Java
Beans rather than OpenDoc as their enterprisewide object model.
The move to Java Beans was a natural outgrowth of IBM's
increasing focus on network-centric computing at the enterprise
level, said Scott Hebner, manager of application development
and marketing for IBM's software group. It will come soon after
Apple said it was backing off OpenDoc development. (See "Apple
reorganizes itself as a Next clone.")
Hebner said that IBM will announce its Java Beans strategy on
April 2, the opening of Sun's JavaOne trade show in San
Francisco.
"OpenDoc was optimized for being an OS-specific type
environment," Hebner said. "In line with our focus on network
computing, our component architecture is going to be Java
Beans, and that is where we are heading with all this."
As part of that initiative, IBM and Sun will propose that the
Object Management Group (OMG) use Java Beans instead of OpenDoc
as its object-container model. OpenDoc's future, at least at
IBM, will be as a source for adding object- container
technology to a number of products, such as VisualAge for C++
and other tools, Hebner said.
According to sources familiar with the talks between the two
companies, that could include incorporating some components
from OpenDoc into the Java Beans architecture, giving a more
robust Java Beans implementation the capability to create
object-based compound documents. However, Sun and IBM have not
come to any agreement on how use OpenDoc technology within Java
Beans.
IBM's decision to downplay OpenDoc's strategic importance also
calls into question Apple's plans to use the technology as
well.
Both Apple and IBM executives had been talking with Sun about
merging the two technologies into a tightly integrated
offering, referred to variously as Open Beans or JavaDoc,
sources said. However, Sun officials balked at the idea of
using a container technology that would have to be developed
for specific OSes and could not support network computers
relying on only rudimentary OSes at the client level.
"When you look at it from our perspective, the landscape has
shifted pretty significantly over the last several years,"
Hebner said. "We had a focus on building OS-specific
component-based apps to one of building applications for
network computing. IBM's strength and focus is on helping our
users reap the benefits of network computing and electronic
business solutions and commerce -- Java Beans is ideal for that
type of environment."
So far, only Oracle and Netscape have committed to supporting a
common object architecture alongside Sun and IBM, but the four
companies will propose Java Beans as the object container model
to the OMG, sources said.
Although the OMG has not yet been approached, the head of the
standards body indicated that it wouldn't be a problem to
replace OpenDoc with Java Beans.
"As far as I am concerned, trading one component architecture
for another is not a bad thing," said Chris Stone, president
and chairman of the OMG. "That is the way these vendors work."
trendovi.17nenad,
Shvatajući nemogućnost da jedna ista stvar zadovolji sve potrebe,
JavaSoft je najavio "razdvajanje" razvoja Jave u 4 ciljna pravca,
namenjena različitim kompjuterima, uređajima, okruženjima i
namenama. Naravno, sve je to i dalje Java, ali biće definisani
različiti podskupovi API-ja za mašine sa različitom namenom i
mogućnostima. To su:
- JaveBeans,
- Personal Java,
- Embeded Java i
- SmartCard Java
JavaSoft to make Java more digestible with four flavors
JavaSoft, in the face of increasing speculation about the lack
of coherence in Java development directions, will announce next
week a segmentation of Java development into four distinct
areas.
To be unveiled at the JavaOne conference in San Francisco, the
four areas -- Enterprise Java Beans, Personal Java, Embedded
Java, and SmartCard Java -- will provide a series of specific
APIs to which Java developers will write code for varying
platforms.
"We are stretching the Java platform, both up and down," said
Jon Kannegaard, vice president of software products at
JavaSoft.
The various Java development tracks will employ the same Java
development tools but create different implementations for each
of the four areas.
At the top of the heap is Enterprise Java Beans, an umbrella
schema for many existing Java technologies, such as Java
Database Connectivity (JDBC), Java Naming and Directory
Interface (JNDI), Java Remote Method Invocation (RMI), and Java
Interface Definition Language (IDL).
"Java Beans will be extended to do transactions, using some of
the TP monitors that third-party vendors have built,"
Kannegaard said.
The Java segmentation announcement will feature a number of
"major" third-party vendors, Kannegaard said.
While giving coherence to the Java enterprise development area,
JavaSoft also hopes that the Personal, Embedded, and SmartCard
Java segments will build momentum for smaller Java
applications.
Personal Java is for smaller, non-PC devices, Kannegaard said.
"These are things like smart phones, [personal digital
assistants], Web TVs, with small memory and perhaps small
displays," Kannegaard said. "For the most part, they would have
2 megs of memory or less."
Embedded Java is yet one step smaller, designed for nondisplay
devices such as fax machines, copiers, heating systems, and gas
pumps.
"These would be even smaller, since they have no display
needs," Kannegaard said. "They would typically have 1 meg or
less of memory."
At the bottom of the Java development segmentation is SmartCard
Java, which would allow end-users to carry personal data --
such as workspace certificates and access permissions -- on a
card that could be inserted into desktops throughout an
enterprise.
trendovi.18madamov,
[Image]
Weak challenge to [Image][Image]
[Home]
Win-ternet empire
[News Library]
[Index]
Microsoft lacks Jedi adept at striking back
[Feedback]
Published: March 23, 1997
[Image] Dan Gillmor's home page
BY DAN GILLMOR
Mercury News Computing Editor
SO there was Paul Gross, former major-domo at a software
company that took on Microsoft and lost, up on the big screen
in the Santa Clara Convention Center ballroom -- touting
Microsoft's latest software-development tools.
Then there was Lew Platt, chief executive of Hewlett-Packard,
on a stage the same day at HP headquarters -- adopting
Microsoft Windows NT as a cornerstone of HP's future.
And there on a virtual stage, the official Oscars Web site
promoting tonight's Academy Awards, was a contest you could
enter online -- but only if you used a Microsoft Web browser.
Was there a common thread in all this? You bet.
The unsubtle messages, part of an ongoing campaign, said:
Microsoft is inevitable. It will dip into endlessly deep
pockets to buy anything, or anyone, to feed its infinite
appetites. It will out-work, under-price, and out-last any
competition. It will own any market it chooses, and punish
customers who buy from the competition. Whether you're a
competitor or customer, you will be assimilated. Resistance is
futile.
It seemed futile for Gross, who bore an almost bemused
expression in his taped pitch to some 45,000 software
developers in 90 locations around the globe, part of
Microsoft's ``Developer Days'' event. Maybe he was tired.
Maybe he was appreciating the irony: Before joining Microsoft
late last year, he was senior vice president for research and
development at software toolmaker Borland International, a
company that once had dreams of challenging Microsoft for
software pre-eminence but now struggles even for stability, a
company where the very word ``Microsoft'' churns up stomach
acid.
It seemed futile for Platt, who put HP squarely on what is
becoming a Windows NT bandwagon. In the process he told the
world that HP's future, in a fundamental way, lies in being
yet another Microsoft reseller -- a perhaps risky strategy for
a giant company that wants to control its own destiny.
And it threatens to be futile for people who use the World
Wide Web, as demonstrated by the Internet Explorer-only online
contest on the Oscars Web site. This wasn't a big deal by
itself. But Microsoft's browser tactics are just a small part
of the company's Windows-čber-alles determination to turn the
Internet into what a friend now calls the Win-ternet -- and,
ultimately, to put Microsoft software in the heart of every
electronic device on the planet. When you control the access
to the device, you may ultimately control how people use it.
In a manner that would have left the robber barons of the late
19th century gaping in absolute awe, Microsoft is approaching
something unprecedented: a monopoly that could well own the
choke points of tomorrow's commerce and communications.
Political and economic theory and history suggest I'm probably
too pessimistic, that all-powerful empires rarely come about
-- and that even when they do they don't last. They crumble
from within or are undermined from without, or both,
particularly in a business that moves as fast as technology.
Theory, even when correct, dismisses the devastating human
costs of empire.
Too often, people cite Microsoft's hard-as-nails business
tactics as evidence of an evil empire. That's way too strong a
word, and it ignores the very positive aspects of the
operation.
The company's competitive advantages have also included
brilliant management, highly capable and motivated employees,
exceptionally hard work, often superb products and an unerring
ability to cash in on its competitors' frequent incompetence.
With those traits alone, Microsoft would be one of the most
formidable companies on the planet. Add the hard-edged
behavior and you get a potential empire, an enterprise that so
far has been able to co-opt or squash every threat.
To reach genuine empire, you must stir in one more ingredient:
inaction on the part of those entrusted to enforce laws
promoting competition and responsible corporate behavior. This
is today's reality. The result is an unregulated near-monopoly
whose power grows daily, a budding empire run by people whose
behavior has often been anything but benevolent.
Let's assume that the Justice Department's antitrust division
has acted in good faith, untainted by external financial or
political influences -- though the Clinton administration's
visible absence of ethical or intellectual character makes
that a charitable assumption.
Let's also assume that the very nature of technology creates
``natural'' monopolies, a logical settling on standards, and
that the high velocity of the technology industry makes the
antitrust laws arcane and unenforceable in that arena.
Does this mean we should abandon our efforts to promote
competition, and accept unregulated monopoly? For whatever
reason, our leaders seem to have made that decision.
They have concluded, I fear, that resistance is futile. If so,
they have made a serious mistake.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Write Dan Gillmor at the Mercury News, 750 Ridder Park Dr.,
San Jose, Calif. 95190; (408) 920-5016; fax (408) 920-5917.
E-mail: dgillmor@sjmercury.com. Web:
http://www.sjmercury.com/business/gillmor .
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[Open a Fidelity SEP-IRA by April 15th and loer your 1996 Tax Bill.]
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trendovi.19nenad,
Integracija televizije, Web-a, mreže, kompjutera je sve realnija.
Microsoft je pre neku nedelju kupio firmu WebTV, a i drugi ne
sede skrštenih ruku...
IBM unveils TV set-top box design kit for OEMs
IBM on Tuesday introduced a television set-top box design kit
that combines hardware and software components in one package.
The tightly integrated design is the first step in the
company's plan to develop a custom chip that blends set-top box
functions on a single sliver of silicon.
The new set-top box design kit, and eventually the single-chip
solution, will be sold to equipment manufacturers who will add
their own customized functions. The set-top box reference
design kit is available for demonstration immediately, with
general availability scheduled for June at a price of $7,500.
The kit integrates all the hardware and software needed to
build a set-top box. It works with cable television systems or
satellite services, including EchoStar, AlphaStar, and Canal+.
Manufacturers can easily customize the design to provide online
gaming, shopping, Web browsing, and other premium services, IBM
said.
Thomson Consumer Electronics and Tatung have already selected
various IBM solutions -- all based on PowerPC chips -- to power
their upcoming set-top boxes.
Separately, Microware Systems said that its DAVID (Digital
Audio/Video Interactive Decoder) and OS-9-based development
tools will support IBM's set-top box reference platform.
IBM becomes the latest in a growing list of manufacturers
getting into the development of set-top boxes. According to
market researcher Dataquest, semiconductor sales into the
digital set-top-boxes market are expected to rise from $575
million in 1995 to $4.4 billion by 2001, with more than 30
million digital set-top boxes predicted to be in homes
worldwide by 2000.
trendovi.20madamov,
Pre nekog vremena smo ovde pominjali Speech Recognition, pa evo nešto na tu
temu, tj. šta se sve može postići računarom firme "koja propada". B)
Date: Fri, 25 Apr 97 19:29:28 +0100
From: EvangeList <evangelist@apple.com>
To: "Macway" <macway-post@private.lists.apple.com>
Subject: Tidbit - Mac home automation
Message-ID: <199704260227.TAA13664@scv3.apple.com>
Keyword: Advocacy, Wicked Cool Stuff
This tidbit is from:
<f8dy@earthlink.net>
Every day after work, I come home and say "Computer, I'm home", which
turns on the living room and hall lights, air conditioner, and stereo
system, says "Welcome home" (through my stereo system), speaks a summary
of who has called during the day, then dials the modem, checks for new
e-mail messages, and speaks a summary of who has sent me e-mail during
the day.
Here's how it works:
- A caller-ID-capable modem and a $20 shareware program called
MacCallerID integrates any Macintosh into your telephone system. Just
plug the modem in normally, and MacCallerID displays the caller ID
information on screen. It's also scriptable, and with Apple's Plaintalk
Text-To-Speech and Applescript technologies (both part of the MacOS), my
computer can speak in plain English and give me a summary of who has
called and when.
- A $5 RCA cable integrates any Macintosh with A/V ports into your stereo
system -- I just plugged the RCA cable into the audio out port on my
PowerMac 8500 and into an input port on my amplifier.
- Eudora Light (see <http://www.eudora.com>) is a free e-mail program
which is scriptable, enabling me to get information about each message
through Applescript and then speak the information I want.
- A $50 X-10 controller (see <http://www.smarthome.com/>) and some
$10-$15 X-10 receiver integrates any Macintosh with all your lights and
appliances. The controller, which plugs into the printer or modem port,
sends infrared signals to the receivers to turn the lights/appliances on
or off. (No special wiring is required; plug the appliance into the X-10
receiver and plug the X-10 receiver into the wall.) A $10 shareware
scripting addition lets me write Applescripts to control the controller,
and with Apple's Speech Recognition (free, see
<http://www.speech.apple.com>), I can come into my apartment and say
"Computer, lights" to run a script to turn on the lights, or in this
case, "Computer, I'm home" to turn on several things at once and say
"Welcome home."
Total cost: the Mac, modem, and stereo I already had, caller ID service
from my local phone company, and about $125 of hardware and software. And
it all works flawlessly; I never expected anything less.
________________________
Digital Guy Sez:
Now we just need that Majel Barret text-to-speech voice. :)
________________
Do you believe in Macintosh? Please check out:
<http://www.evangelist.macaddict.com/>
Join the EvangeList mailing list by sending an email to:
<evangelist@macway.com>.
Please send messages that you'd like us to consider for posting to:
<evangelist@apple.com>
trendovi.21nenad,
Microsoft se nalazi na raskršću - da li da prati put otvorenih
standarada koji se nameće i sve većom popularnošću Internet-a ili
da i dalje koristi svoju poziciju dominantnog proizvođača
operativnih sistema za učvršćivanje pozicije na tržištu.
Nekoliko njihovih "inicijativa" (proizvoda i predloga standarada)
su ostale u senci događaja koji su pratili Internet... Java i NC
su na horizontu i MS mora da se opredeli da li da i dalje igra
svoju igru ili da na vreme zauzima poziciju koju, bez svake
sumnje, može da zauzme i na otvorenom tržištu.
Dileme i konfuzije prisutne su i u samoj firmi, ali izgleda da
je, prema poslednjim vestima, Bil Gejst "prelomio" - kome se ne
dopada Windows, može da izleti kroz isti. ;)
U nastavku sledi analiza trenutne MS-ove pozicije, kao i
predložene koncepcije "Windows Terminala" koji treba da se
suprostavi Network Computer-u.
Microsoft hits the Java wall
Microsoft Corp. may have successfully embraced and extended the
Internet last year, but in its fight with Java and the NC, it
doesn't seem to be landing many punches yet.
After months of planning, the company this week postponed a major
relaunch of Windows--code-named D-Day--designed to show off the
operating system's scalability and short-circuit the gradual
seduction of corporate users by the network computer and the Java
platform.
While Microsoft will continue to push its high-end clustering
technology and low-end terminals during its Tech Ed conference
and other events next month, other announcements--such as
extensions to COM (Component Object Model) and a newly minted DNA
(Distributed Network Architecture)--have been put on hold.
DNA, sources said, is an outline of how programs ranging from
thin clients to enterprise applications can run on Windows.
Microsoft has not canceled the D-Day announcement but has put it
on ice until executives figure out precisely how to present it to
customers.
"We have a solid asset in this thing called Windows," said one
source at Microsoft. "So how do we invest and further that
platform and still respond to the cross-platform needs that make
Java and the NC so popular? That's what we have to figure out."
While Microsoft searches for the right message, pressure is
mounting. For the past 18 months, Sun Microsystems Inc., Netscape
Communications Corp., IBM and Oracle Corp. have been hammering
out a different message: The operating system is becoming
obsolete.
Corporate users haven't fully bought into that message, but it's
gaining momentum. The $20 billion McKesson Corp., of San
Francisco, for example, isn't ruling out any options--NCs,
traditional PCs or workstations--for future network growth.
"The real question is creating a cost-effective solution," said
Charles Nettles, director of technology at McKesson. "We don't
expect to divorce entirely the PC and OS. But we are closely
looking at how we can establish the Web-top for things like
[online transaction processing] applications."
While he won't turn his back on new Microsoft technology,
Nettles, like many other IS professionals, is leery of relying
entirely on the Redmond, Wash., developer.
"We are very committed to the open-systems approach," he said.
And corporate users are beginning to sense Microsoft's confusion
regarding the Java threat.
"Lately, they have been as defensive as their competition has
been offensive," said an IS manager for a large
financial-services corporation.
Part of the problem may be internal. Many Microsoft developers,
according to sources, are dissatisfied with what they see as the
company's timidity toward fully embracing Java.
A top Microsoft official last week denied that there was or is an
internal push to rewrite core Windows technologies in Java.
"The notion of writing core parts of Windows in Java is
particularly funny; it would only be slower, fatter and less
capable," said Senior Vice President Brad Silverberg. "We don't
think that's the right way to develop superior operating
systems."
Nonetheless, Microsoft is rewriting a key Windows technology--its
Distributed COM transport--in Java, to extend its reach to other
platforms.
Several Microsoft officials acknowledged that internally there
was "vigorous" discussion over what to do about Java and the NC.
In fact, sources said that CEO Bill Gates squashed discussions of
expanding its embrace of Java technology when he recently snapped
in a meeting, "Has anyone here heard of Windows?"
Windows terminal nowhere in sight
If Microsoft Corp.'s plans for a Windows marketing architecture
have been judged unripe, the proposed Windows Terminal is barely
a seedling.
Microsoft has proposed an even thinner client than the NetPC,
dubbed the Windows Terminal. It's described as a task-based
device that runs Windows CE on the client and either a
forthcoming multiuser version of Windows NT on the server or a
third-party remote protocol.
However, major PC makers do not plan to build such devices,
mainly because they're already building NetPCs. Response from
terminal companies has been tepid at best, and interested
developers complain they can't get solid information on where
Microsoft is taking the initiative.
Observers say this is because the Windows Terminal, which resides
below the NetPC on the PC food chain, is a somewhat hastily
conceived competitor to the Java-based NC (network computer).
One major problem is that the device runs only Windows.
"They are ignoring the desire for Java," said Mike Kantrovich,
executive vice president at HDS Network Systems Inc., a former X
Window System terminal company credited with releasing the first
NC. "We know an NC needs to run Windows, but a Windows Terminal
doesn't run anything but Windows, and enterprises believe Java is
part of their future."
Also unclear is the remote protocol Microsoft will use. Microsoft
officials said they're undecided about whether to use the ICA3
protocol and WinFrame from Citrix Systems Inc.; its own multiuser
NT, code-named Hydra; or another protocol.
trendovi.22nenad,
Čovek koji je pre 2 godine rekao da je Internet "prolazna moda"
sada kaže da će za nekoliko godina svi komunicirati e-mailom i
živeti "web-lifestyle". :)
Šta još Bil Gejts predviđa za dekadu koja dolazi, detaljnije u
tekstu...
Gates to CEOs: Buy my stuff
Bill Gates warned 100 CEOs gathered at his CEO Summit Thursday
not to be "lulled to sleep" if the Internet doesn't bring
startling changes to their organizations overnight. "Within 10
years, the majority of all adults will be using electronic mail
and living a Web lifestyle," he predicted.
The CEOs -- from top corporations in 25 countries -- trekked to
Seattle for two days of speeches and discussions about how
technology can make their organizations more competitive. Though
Gates didn't demonstrate any Microsoft Corp. products or
technologies, there was no mistaking that this was a marketing
event. He praised the companies that have used Microsoft's
software to make their operations more efficient and responsive
to customers. And sometimes his sales pitch was anything but
subtle. "Building a system that fulfills your wildest dreams is
possible today," he said.
The CEOs seemed most attentive when Gates outlined his vision of
the world of computing a decade from now. Gates promised that
computing devices will be "radically different." He also said
that we'll talk to our computers instead of being dependent on
keyboards and mice. And, instead of searching Internet databases
with clumsy key word searches, we'll simply ask them questions
the way we would another person. "Ninety percent of the code in
software will be used for speaking, listening, recognizing
handwriting and understanding linguistics," Gates said.
Another thing: That "paperless office" that Xerox Corp. promised
a decade ago -- it's still coming, Gates promised. As an
exercise, he recently asked to see all of the paper forms that
Microsoft now uses -- and got a huge pile on his desk. He combed
through them and demanded to know why they were necessary. Almost
immediately, a number of them were retired. And, "Within a year,"
he predicted, "we'll be able to get rid of virtually all of
them."
Gates urged the CEOs not to wait a decade to begin transforming
their organizations. He called computer networks their "digital
nervous systems," and said they've got to be healthy to serve the
corporate body politic, rather than bog it down. He said it's the
key to being able to respond quickly to new opportunities and to
sudden reversals of fortune. And he even used his own company's
missteps as proof of what advanced technology can do for
organizations. Remember two years ago, when Microsoft seemed
hopelessly behind on the Internet? It was. But 18 months ago, a
flurry of E-mail messages between Gates and his lieutenants set
off alarm bells. "It came to a fever pitch and was recognized as
a crisis," said Gates. And, within a 45-day period, a new product
and pricing strategy was launched. "That wouldn't have happened
if we had a tired nervous system," he said.
Gates sees some tough challenges ahead for the PC industry.
First, it has to improve manageability of computer systems and
reduce customers' administration costs. Without naming it, he
pointed to Microsoft's and Intel Corp.'s efforts to create a
NetPC that's simpler and cheaper to use, but more flexible and
powerful than a mainframe terminal. "We don't want a solution
that gives us manageability but un-empowers the individual,"
said.
The other key challenge is "scalability" -- making PCs that are
as powerful as the mainframes and Unix-based computers they seek
to replace in giant corporations. He predicted that within a
year, PC clustering technologies will allow PCs to match
mainframes' ability to perform the most demanding computational
tasks.
He ended by calling upon CEOs to give their employees not just
the latest in computing tools, but access to vital corporate
information that might have been kept secret in the past.
"Information workers aren't cogs in an industrial process," he
said. "When you let them see corporate information, you empower
them," he said.
trendovi.23nenad,
Opisi nekih novih termima koji se mogu čuti u kompjuterskoj
periodici. Najbolji su dribbleware i SMOP. :)
PCification was used to describe what's happening in the
networking business: It's going through "PCification." In
most cases, it's hard to pinpoint the origin of a buzzword,
but there's no doubt about the source of this one. It was
used by Bay Networks President David House in presentations
at last month's NetWorld+Interop trade show, in Las Vegas.
What adoption of the IBM PC architecture did for personal
computers, he said, adoption of TCP/IP is doing for
networking.
Proprietization was another unusual word used by House in
the same presentation. One of the results of the
PCification of networking, he said, is resistance to
proprietization on the part of companies buying
technologies.
Dribbleware is the tendency of vendors to release versions
of their software nonstop. This is one of the best new
types of ware since slideware, which is used to describe
products or features that exist only on slides used in
vendor presentations.
Information superhighway robbery is what can happen if
you're not careful on the Internet. Perpetrators can be
everything from stock swindlers to Internet service
providers looking to make a killing on fees to Web-site
developers able to overcharge because they're selling to
people who don't know what the work is worth.
Green-field opportunities is used to describe promising
markets that no company dominates, such as China. This is
most commonly used to explain why it's realistic for
technology companies to continue to count on high growth
rates.
SMOP means simply a matter of programming. It is commonly
used in communicating with non-IS people in your business.
Explain that once they adequately describe the problem that
the proposed project is designed to solve, the rest is
SMOP.
trendovi.24nenad,
Microsoft-ovi zvaničnici tvrde da se u narednim godinama ne mogu
očekivati finansijski uspesi koji su zabeležni u poslednje vreme.
Da bi se ovaj trend nastavio morao bi izvršiti značajniji prodor
u velike kompanije što se pokazalo da nije ni malo lako.
Najveći problemi koje navodi podpredsednik MS-a su veće poverenje
velikih kompanija u tradicionalne solution-providere poput IBM i
Oracle-a, zatim velika preinstalirana baza DOS i Windows 3.1
mašina koje je teško migrirati ka novim platformama (na način na
koji to MS radi, dodao bih), očekivani prodor Network Computer-a
koji će uticati na smanjenje prodaje PC-jeva, velika
preinstalirana baza Unix i Netware rešenja u velikim kompanijama
i nedostatak skalabilnosti NT-a da ih zameni, kao i velika
popularnost Lotus Notes-a koji je i prošle godine duplirao broj
korisnika.
Microsoft asks market to get real about its prospects
SEATTLE -- Poor Microsoft, its stock price is too rich. That
was the underlying theme here Thursday at a day-long
presentation for financial analysts that took pains to point
out the challenges facing the stock market darling.
After a series of presentations on the company's product plans,
a small parade of senior executives nearly begged the financial
community to believe them when they say Microsoft's past
patterns of growth and revenue generation probably won't
continue.
"There are a lot of challenges at Microsoft, and not everyone
is seeing them," said Steve Ballmer, executive vice president.
"There will be a lot of variability in revenues for next year,
let alone the next couple of years."
New CFO Greg Maffei concurred: "We're virtually sure" that the
new fiscal year will not be as good as fiscal 1997, he said,
due to a slow-down in the growth rate of Windows NT Server and
belief that upgrades to Windows 98 won't match that of adoption
of Windows 95.
Outgoing CFO Mike Brown even went as far as to don bullfighter
garb when he approached the podium at the Washington State
Convention Center here before 300 press and analysts. His
intent was clearly aimed at allaying the stampede of buying
that has raised Microsoft's stock price some 80 percent since
the beginning of the calendar year. The company is now valued
at more than $180 billion, second only to General Electric, on
less than $14 billion in annual revenues.
Usually one of Microsoft's chief boosters, Ballmer was
uncharacteristic Thursday when he listed a series of challenges
facing Microsoft:
- Microsoft sells to far fewer large corporate accounts than
such competitors as IBM and Oracle, which have some 10,000
such accounts worldwide compared to Microsoft's 2,500 large
accounts.
- The 16-bit installed base of DOS and Windows 3.1 platforms
forms a liability for Microsoft by delaying sales of new
32-bit operating system software, and requiring backward
compatibility features.
- A number of large pilot programs for the network computer
could prove a harbinger of significant NC deployments that
cut into the growth of PC sales and upgrades.
- Unix and NetWare server operating systems remain entrenched
in large organizations amid lingering doubts about
BackOffice's and Windows NT Server's salability and
reliability.
- Lotus Notes remains popular and has attracted a large
developer community that has populated enterprises with
many server-based applications.
"NT Server has done well, but our server applications are
lagging," amounting to about 10 percent of overall revenues of
server-based applications, Ballmer said. "We are still way, way
behind in server applications."
Microsoft remains by far a PC company that wants to be an
enterprise computing company that supplies "digital nervous
systems" to the world's largest corporations. "By far the thing
we are most sensitive to is PC growth," Ballmer said. And there
are signs that PC growth will be slowing in the coming year in
most markets except Japan, he said.
Microsoft also announced this week that it will increase
spending in the next few months on marketing and sales, cutting
into the company's current 45 percent net profit margin.
Microsoft will also further increase spending on research and
development, beyond the increase in spending from the past
fiscal year by a factor of 3.2 times.
Moreover, Microsoft will be spending more to promote its
Exchange products and to continue to augment its support
services. More funds will be devoted to significantly beef up
groups and programs that target developers in order to woo them
to Windows platforms and Component Object Model as a
distributed applications architecture, said Ballmer.
The bottom line from the executives was that Microsoft intends
to take on its competitors and grow into the largest global
accounts, even as its ability to quickly grow as a PC vendor
diminishes. They said such a transition will take some years
and that Microsoft's ability to grow in the meantime will
suffer.